Calculate Your Solar Panels' Daily Energy Production
Calculating your solar panel daily production is essential data for optimizing your photovoltaic installation and
efficiently managing your electrical consumption. Unlike annual estimates, daily production allows you to adapt your
energy habits in real-time and maximize your self-consumption. In this comprehensive guide, we explain how to
precisely calculate your solar panels' daily output according to seasons, weather conditions, and your specific
configuration.
Why Calculate Your Solar Panel Daily Output?
Self-Consumption Optimization
Solar panel daily production calculation enables you to optimize self-consumption by synchronizing your energy
usage with actual production. Knowing the expected daily output helps you schedule your electrical appliances
during the most favorable times.
This approach is particularly important for installations without battery storage, where electricity not
consumed immediately is fed into the grid at rates typically lower than electricity purchase prices.
Smart Energy Management
Understanding daily production facilitates implementing intelligent energy management. You can anticipate high
or low production days and adjust your consumption accordingly.
This approach becomes crucial with the rise of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other energy-intensive
equipment whose usage can be optimized based on solar production.
Performance Monitoring and Maintenance
Calculating and tracking daily production allows rapid detection of operational anomalies, performance issues,
or maintenance needs for your installation.
Comparing actual production to forecasts helps identify limiting factors and continuously optimize your
installation.
Factors Affecting Daily Solar Production
Major Seasonal Variations
Daily production varies considerably across seasons. In France, winter production can be 5 to 6 times lower
than summer production. This variation results from daylight duration, sun angle, and weather conditions.
A 400W panel can produce 0.5 to 1 kWh per day in winter and 2.5 to 3 kWh per day in summer under optimal
conditions. This variability must be integrated into your daily production calculations.
Weather Conditions Impact
Weather conditions directly influence daily production. A sunny day can produce 3 to 4 times more than a
cloudy day. Temperature also affects efficiency, with performance drops during extreme heat.
Solar panel daily production calculation must account for these variations to provide realistic estimates
based on weather forecasts.
Specific Orientation and Tilt
Your panels' orientation and tilt determine the daily production profile. East-facing orientation favors
morning production, while west-facing orientation benefits late-day production.
This temporal distribution of production directly influences self-consumption opportunities and must be
considered in your daily calculations.
PVGIS24: The Reference Tool for Daily Calculation
Precise Hourly Data
PVGIS24 provides hourly production
data that allows precise calculation of daily production according to your specific configuration. The tool
integrates seasonal variations, local climate conditions, and your installation's specifics.
The PVGIS24 solar calculator
analyzes your exact location, panel orientation, and provides hour-by-hour production estimates throughout
the year.
Weather Condition Simulation
The tool allows simulating daily production under different weather conditions: sunny, partially cloudy, or
overcast days. This functionality helps anticipate production variations and plan your consumption.
The free version of PVGIS24 provides monthly averages, while advanced versions offer detailed daily analysis
with hourly data export.
Detailed Seasonal Analysis
PVGIS24 calculates average daily production for each month of the year, allowing you to anticipate seasonal
variations and adapt your energy strategy. The tool also provides minimum and maximum values for each
period.
This seasonal analysis is essential for properly sizing potential storage systems or planning maintenance
periods.
Daily Production Calculation Methodology
Step 1: Installation Characterization
Begin by precisely characterizing your installation: number and power of panels, orientation, tilt,
technology type used. These parameters directly determine potential daily production.
Use PVGIS24 simulation tools to obtain production data specific to your exact configuration.
Step 2: Local Solar Irradiance Analysis
Local solar irradiance determines possible daily production. PVGIS24 uses historical weather databases to
calculate average daily solar irradiation based on your location.
This analysis includes seasonal variations and your region's climatic specifics for realistic estimates.
Step 3: System Loss Integration
Daily solar panel production calculation must integrate system losses: inverter efficiency, wiring losses,
temperature impact, and panel soiling. These losses typically represent 15 to 20% of theoretical production.
PVGIS24 automatically integrates these losses using scientifically validated models, ensuring realistic
daily production estimates.
Step 4: Daily Variation Calculation
The tool calculates daily production variations based on seasons, weather conditions, and your
installation's specifics.
This data allows you to anticipate and plan your energy consumption.
Regional Daily Production Examples
Northern France (Lille, Rouen)
In northern France, a 400W panel produces on average:
- Winter (December-January): 0.4 to 0.8 kWh/day
- Spring/Fall (March-April, October-November): 1.2 to 1.8 kWh/day
- Summer (June-July): 2.2 to 2.8 kWh/day
A 4 kW installation (10 × 400W panels) therefore produces between 4 and 28 kWh per day depending on season.
Paris Region and Central France
The Paris region shows intermediate performance for a 400W panel:
- Winter: 0.5 to 1 kWh/day
- Spring/Fall: 1.4 to 2 kWh/day
- Summer: 2.4 to 3 kWh/day
This region offers good balance for residential self-consumption with moderate variations.
Southern France (Marseille, Nice)
Southern France optimizes daily production:
- Winter: 0.8 to 1.4 kWh/day per 400W panel
- Spring/Fall: 1.8 to 2.4 kWh/day
- Summer: 2.8 to 3.5 kWh/day
These favorable conditions enable high self-consumption and optimized profitability.
Calculation by Different Panel Types
Standard Panels (300-350W)
Standard panels show proportionally reduced daily production:
- 300W panel: 75% of 400W panel production
- 350W panel: 87.5% of 400W panel production
These panels remain efficient but require more units to achieve given daily production.
High-Performance Panels (450-500W)
High-performance panels maximize daily production:
- 450W panel: 112.5% of 400W panel production
- 500W panel: 125% of 400W panel production
These technologies optimize available roof space utilization.
Bifacial Panels
Bifacial panels can increase daily production by 10 to 30% depending on installation conditions,
particularly on reflective surfaces or ground-mounted installations.
Daily Production Optimization
Solar Orientation Adaptation
To maximize daily production, optimal orientation varies by season. Steeper tilt favors winter production,
while reduced tilt optimizes summer production.
The solar financial simulator
allows testing different configurations and identifying the one optimizing your daily production according
to your objectives.
Shade Management
Variable shading by hour and season significantly affects daily production. Shade analysis with PVGIS24
helps anticipate these variations and optimize panel placement.
Technological Solutions
Power optimizers and micro-inverters improve daily production in cases of partial shading or panels with
different orientations.
Energy Planning Based on Daily Production
Electrical Appliance Scheduling
Knowing forecasted daily production allows optimal scheduling of energy-intensive appliances: washing
machine, dishwasher, water heater.
This scheduling maximizes self-consumption and reduces grid electricity purchases.
Energy Storage Management
For battery installations, daily production calculation helps size and manage storage.
You can anticipate low production days and adapt charge/discharge strategy.
Electric Vehicle Integration
Electric vehicle charging can be optimized based on forecasted daily production, maximizing your solar
production utilization.
Performance Monitoring and Analysis
Forecast vs. Reality Comparison
Comparing actual daily production to forecasts identifies performance gaps and their causes: soiling, new
shading, technical malfunction.
Continuous Optimization
Daily production data analysis reveals improvement opportunities: panel cleaning, tree pruning, consumption
adjustments.
Preventive Maintenance
Daily monitoring facilitates preventive maintenance planning by identifying low production periods to
minimize intervention impact.
Advanced Tools for Daily Analysis
Advanced PVGIS24 Features
The Premium, Pro, and Expert plans of PVGIS24
offer advanced features for daily production analysis:
- Detailed hourly data: Hour-by-hour production
- Multi-scenario analysis: Different configuration comparisons
- Data export: Integration into your energy management tools
- Weather simulations: Production under different conditions
Monitoring System Integration
PVGIS24 data can be integrated into monitoring systems to automate energy management based on daily
production forecasts.
Practical Applications of Daily Calculation
Residential Self-Consumption
For homeowners, daily calculation optimizes self-consumption by adapting usage to production forecasts. This
approach can improve self-consumption by 10 to 20%.
Commercial Installations
Businesses use these calculations to optimize energy processes and reduce electricity costs by adapting
activities to production peaks.
Multi-Installation Portfolio Management
Multi-installation managers use this data to globally optimize their portfolio and anticipate maintenance
needs.
Technological Evolution and Perspectives
Predictive Artificial Intelligence
Future tools will integrate AI to improve daily production predictions by analyzing weather patterns and
historical performance data.
Real-Time Weather Data Integration
Evolution toward forecasts based on real-time weather data will improve daily production estimate accuracy.
Automated Optimization
Future energy management systems will automatically optimize consumption based on daily production
forecasts.
Conclusion
Solar panel daily production calculation is an essential tool for optimizing your photovoltaic installation
and maximizing energy savings. PVGIS24 offers the most precise tools for calculating and analyzing your
daily production according to your specific configuration.
This detailed approach allows you to adapt your energy habits, optimize self-consumption, and intelligently
manage your solar installation. Precise knowledge of your daily production transforms your installation into
an intelligent and optimized energy system.
By using appropriate calculation tools and regularly analyzing your production data, you maximize your solar
investment profitability while effectively contributing to the energy transition.
FAQ - Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How does daily production vary between winter and summer?
A: Daily production can vary from 1 to 5 or 6 depending on regions. A 400W panel produces about 0.5 kWh/day
in winter and 2.5-3 kWh/day in summer under optimal conditions.
Q: Is daily production the same every day of the month?
A: No, production varies daily based on weather conditions. Tools like PVGIS24 provide
monthly averages but actual production fluctuates ±30% based on weather.
Q: How do you calculate daily production for a 6 kW installation?
A: Divide 6 kW by your panels' unit power to get the number, then multiply by unit daily
production. For example: 15 × 400W panels × 1.5 kWh/day = 22.5 kWh/day average.
Q: Does orientation influence daily production distribution?
A: Yes, east orientation produces more in the morning, west orientation more in the afternoon,
and south orientation distributes production more evenly throughout the day.
Q: Can you predict daily production several days in advance?
A: Weather forecasts allow estimating production 3-5 days ahead with reasonable accuracy.
Beyond that, only seasonal averages are reliable.
Q: How do you optimize consumption based on daily production?
A: Schedule your high consumers (washing machine, dishwasher, water heater) during
production hours, typically between 10 AM and 4 PM depending on your orientation.
Q: Does temperature affect daily production?
A: Yes, panels lose about 0.4% efficiency per degree above 25°C. Very hot days can reduce
production by 10-15% despite strong sunlight.
Q: Should you clean panels to maintain daily production?
A: Soiling can reduce production by 5-15%. Cleaning 1-2 times per year is generally sufficient,
except in very dusty areas where it may be more frequent.